Trucking Employment Drops then Levels off Again

History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Such is the case with employment in the trucking industry. What happened in October and November 2023 seems similar to August and September 2023, just at a smaller magnitude. Here is what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports as of December 2023.

Details

• September 2023 had a slight change, moving from 1,584,500 to 1,584,200.
• Currently, October 2023 stands at 1,580,600.
• Lastly, November’s first preliminary count signals an uptrend at 1,581,300 employees.

This is the first time we have personally noticed a repeat trend in the trucking industry like this. What will be interesting to see is what November’s final number looks like when it is released in February, as a not-so-subtle way to determine the strength of the holiday season for 2023.

In regards to wages, which are a month behind employment numbers, August had $1,184.30 in average weekly income ($29.17 at 40.6 hours per week), September averaged at $1,168.37 ($28.92 at 40.4 hours weekly), and October had an average of $1,81.46 ($29.10 for 40.6 hours). While the trend is placed a month earlier than employment numbers, it still follows the same pattern, a slight drop, followed by normalization.

Conclusion

As we look into the future for December and January, we expect to see an increase of trucking employment available due to the holiday season and its aftermath. Contrary to what one might expect, trucking employment usually increases moving from December to January, in a period that is usually regarded as the “slow season”.

What causes this counterintuitive phenomenon? We could only speculate, but the main driving force is likely that the trucking industry does not often have seasonal employees: while trucking companies will use the holiday season as a reason to boost its numbers, it will seldom go through the effort of hiring a new trucker only to let them go once the figgy pudding has run out of supply.

As of the time of writing the all-time high for trucking employment is 1,611,400 in January 2023. The preliminary count for November 2023 is 30,100 below that–a less than two percent decrease from its record.

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