This information has been out for a while now, but between port backlogs, infrastructure bills, and vaccine mandate news, it has been on the backburner. Backburner may be an appropriate description for the current state of the Class 8 market as well, as supply chain constraints are causing order numbers to fall and preorders to skyrocket.
October 2021 Numbers
The prediction Don Ake of FTR has been warning us for over half of a year now has finally come true: circumstances are making it so that truck manufacturers are incapable of keeping up with purchasing demand.
ACT Research pins the number at 23,600 units. FTR pegs the result at 24,500 units. Either way, the number is both a 12% month-to-month drop from September 2021 and a 39% year-to-year drop from October 2021.
Graph courtesy of ACT Research and FTR.
Part of the problem is the all-or-nothing nature of a truck. If there is a shortage of rubber for tires, which there is, it does not matter how many drive shafts you have, you will have zero trucks produced.
“The OEMs are using different methods in managing the backlog,” Don Ake of FTR said. “Some are cancelling 2021 orders and rebooking those orders in 2022, sometimes at higher prices, as commodity and other costs remain elevated. Others are only booking a limited number of orders every month.”
Don Ake also says that for the foreseeable future, he does not see monthly truck orders exceeding the 22,000-26,000 range, as that is the supply chain speed limit for the time being.
With backlogs upon backlogs and monthly capacity at its fullest, the bad news is that, for the time being, trucks both new and used are having their prices elevated miles above what they were at the trough of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020. Anyone who bought trucks then made out like bandits.
The silver lining is that TopMark Funding can work with its over two dozen lenders to get you the best possible financing deal for your next truck or trailer for your personal credit situation. Read on below for more details about our program!
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