All good things must come to an end. For trailer sales, which wavered at the start of the coronavirus pandemic but came back with a vengeance in June 2020, it appears that the skyrocket has begun to run out of fuel.
FTR and ACT Research are very close in their estimates this month, at 11,000 and 11,100 units, respectively. By standard metrics it is a so-so month for trailer sales, and it is slightly higher than May 2021 numbers. The fact that it is about 22% lower sales year-over-year, however, marks the end of a twelve-month era and leaves a sour taste in our mouths.
So what is to blame: a lack of supply in the trucking industry, or demand? Frank Maly of ACT Research says it is a combination of both.
“While the sequential increase in net orders was certainly welcome, a full response to actual fleet demand would have generated higher order volumes. Some OEMs, due to their extended backlogs, continue to be unwilling to book meaningful order volumes at this time.” Indeed, the numbers track orders, and it is hard to ask for more when you have not yet received your original order yet
Things do not look quite so bright for July 2021 either in this regard. In order to surpass its predecessor, it will need to have approximately 20,000 units ordered, a month-over-month increase of around 82%.
We have been surprised before, we certainly did not expect the trucking industry to rebound only after three months of lockdown quarantine, so perhaps we will just have to wait and see. In any case, the chain for trailer orders is officially broken.
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