Oil Demand to Increase Until 2030, Researchers Claim
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Some of the biggest news in the trucking industry right now is the adoption of greener technologies such as electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, but the adoption rate of greener vehicles amongst the general populace has slowed down in recent years, despite consistently high gas and diesel prices. To that end, the energy research group Envernus predicts that things are going to get a lot more oily before they become less oily.
Details
As hard as it is to believe based on the prices seen at the pump, the United States is extracting oil at record rates. This is part of the reason why the report’s author, Al Salazar, says the transition away from oil is still approximately half a decade away, at the very least.
“People including ourselves have been overestimating the impact of electric vehicles and fuel economy standards,” Salazar said in an interview. “We’ve incorporated a more conservative view on electric vehicles in terms of the uptake, with Tesla selling less cars and with Ford pivoting to hybrids.”
Even if Envernus’ predictions came true and 2030 was the year where the most oil will ever be consumed in the United States, it is likely that it will still take decades for the economy to ween off of it. Think of oil usage over time as a triangle: simplified, the amount of oil used in 2031 will be the same as in 2029, 2032 for 2028, and so on. Unless something changes in this regard, oil will not be exiting the vehicular diet for a period in any of our lives. One such potential change could be regulation; California wants to make it illegal to operate a diesel truck within the state’s borders in 2042.
Conclusion
Another indicator that could cause the nation to transition away from oil sooner is the economic effects: gasoline and diesel have been relatively high compared to 2020 in the last four years, and should Donald Trump win the 2024 election and becomes the 47th president of the United States, it is likely that fossil fuel prices will decrease again as well due to changes in energy policy.
All of this is to say that for the climate change activists worried about the impact transportation has on the environment, things are going to get worse before they get any better.
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