National Retail Federation Predicts Record Holiday Season in 2025
While there is talk in the news about a growing “K-shaped economy”, those who are wealthier spending more and those who have less money spending less to make ends meet, it seems that the holiday season is going to be an exception to this trend, as the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday season spending to break records and to reach a new milestone of $1 trillion.
Details
How much would you say you spend on gifts, travel, and festivities during the holiday season? The NRF predicts that for 2025 it will increase by at least 3.7% worldwide compared to 2024, leading to an average of $900 per person and totaling over $1 trillion changing hands.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said during a conference call regarding the upcoming holiday season.
As national spending increases, so does the revenue of the total trucking industry as consumers need the goods shipped to nearby stores (or in some cases, to their doorstep). Considering that 2024 was the largest holiday spending since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this season is expected to top even that, it is likely that this will become the holiday season with the most economic activity yet. With inflation rates being at approximately 3%, not all of it is nominal growth.
Conclusion
Usually the National Retail Federation releases the final metrics as the holiday season comes to a close. It is possible, though unlikely, that 2025 may not provide a new record in holiday spending, partly due to the government shutdown and the “K-shaped economy” we talked about at the beginning of this article. We will have to see what happens come the new year.
Are you planning on spending more for the holidays this year than the last, or are you pulling back and making more calculated decisions about your holiday spending? Let us know in the comments below.
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